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Fresh Produce

Bananas Could Be The Vital Crop Of The Future

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Bananas Could Be The Vital Crop Of The Future

The banana family could become a vital food of the world as climate change hits the productivity of other crops. ESM assesses the diet of the future.

No one is suggesting that the humble potato, which has been a reliable source of carbohydrates for centuries, has had its chips. A new report, however, does reveal that the world’s growing population will start to rely on new foodstuffs. Production of the good old potato and the world’s three biggest crops in terms of calories provided – maize, rice and wheat – could fall in developing countries as temperatures rise. So soon, bananas could be the staple of our diet. The United Nations’ Committee on World Food Security asked the influential Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) to investigate the effects of climate change on 22 of the world’s most important agricultural commodities. The findings were startling.

Fruit, especially bananas, may well replace potatoes in some developing countries, while the cassava and the little-known cowpea plant could become much more important food crops. The potato, which prefers a cooler climate, could suffer, as global warming changes the growing conditions. This, naturally, gives producers of other crops the chance to exploit the gap in supply. Similarly, it also offers potato growers the chance to switch crop. Dr Philip Thornton, one of the authors of the report, told the BBC that bananas and plantains might be a good replacement for the potato in some areas. “It’s not necessarily a silver bullet, but there may be places where, as temperatures increase, bananas might be one option that smallholders could start to look at.”

                                                

Wheat Eaten LessWheat, which is the world’s most important plant-derived protein and calorie source, is also under threat, especially in the developing world, where higher prices for cotton, maize and soybeans have pushed wheat to marginal land. This, of course, makes it more susceptible to the effects of climate change. In South Asia, there is a ready substitute in cassava, which is a particularly hardy crop. Bruce Campbell, programme director of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security research group (CCAFS), believes that change is inevitable. It has happened before, after all. “Two decades ago, there was almost no rice consumption in certain areas of Africa, but now there is,” Campbell says. “People have changed because of the pricing – it’s easier to get, it’s easier to cook. Ithink those sort of shifts do occur, and I think they will in future.”

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Protein Under PressureThe rapidly increasing demand for protein as populations rise is another major concern. Soybeans, which are one of the most common sources of protein, are very fragile and will be hit by temperature changes. The cowpea, which is known in sub-Saharan Africa as the ‘poor man’s meat’, grows successfully in arid areas and could be a good alternative to soya. In some countries, including Nigeria and Niger, farmers have already moved away from cotton production to growing cowpeas. Campbell said, “When farmers see the problems they are having with production, they really are willing to shift. Change is really possible. It’s not just a crazy notion.”

This article first appeared in the November/December 2012 issue of ESM.

© 2012 - ESM: European Supermarket Magazine

 

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