Carlsberg and Heineken signalled tougher times ahead for the beer industry as escalating political tensions in eastern Europe weigh on the region's economy.
Carlsberg, Russia’s biggest brewer, cut its full-year forecasts for revenue and earnings even as second-quarter profit beat estimates, causing the shares to slump. Heineken said it expects growth to moderate in the remainder of the year, though the shares surged after the Amsterdam-based company posted profit in the first half that topped estimates.
Across the globe, beer companies are under pressure as drinkers shift to rival craft brews and increasingly trade up to spirits. The recent political tensions between Russia and its western trading partners has added to difficulties in a country where government measures to reduce drinking have been hurting sales for longer than a year. Russia represents more than a third of Carlsberg’s total selling volume.
“Conditions are difficult and apparently getting worse,” Frans Hoyer, an analyst at Jyske Bank, said. “Rather than finding some type of stabilisation now given several years of volume decline it looks we are in for another bout of decline in the next several quarters in Russia.”
Carlsberg said operating profit on a so-called 'organic basis' will rise at a low- to mid-single-digit pace for the year, less than its previous guidance for high-single digit percentage growth. The Copenhagen-based maker of Tuborg also forecast steeper drops in reported operating profit and net income than it had previously indicated.
“Due to the recent macro events the consumer sentiment and the outlook for some of the economies in eastern Europe are becoming increasingly challenging and uncertain,” Carlsberg said in a statement. “Consequently, we believe that the beer category will deteriorate further in the second half of the year. In addition, we expect considerably less stocking among distributors in Russia.”
Heineken, the world’s third-biggest brewer, said growth in revenue per hectoliter of beer sold and profit will slow in the second half from the first six months as some countries lag. The Dutch company still anticipates stronger sales in 2014.
“The economic outlook remains mixed,” Chief Executive Officer Jean-Francois van Boxmeer said in the statement.
Bloomberg News edited by ESM
