Brazil's 2023 coffee crop is expected to reach 54.94 million 60-kg bags, a 7.9% increase from the previous year, government food and statistics agency Conab said in its first estimate for the new season.
Despite 2023 being an 'off-year' in the biennial arabica coffee cycle that alternates years of high and low production in Brazil, the fresh crop is likely to surpass last year's output as the 2022 crop was impacted by previous drought and frosts.
Some independent analysts had already forecast a higher production on a yearly basis because of that. Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, accounting for nearly a third of global output.
Conab said Brazil's arabica coffee crop is set to reach 37.43 million bags this year, up 14.4% from 2022, boosted by a rebound in top producing state Minas Gerais.
Output of robusta coffee, on the other hand, is expected to drop a slight 3.8% from a record set in 2022 to total 17.51 million bags, Conab added.
Total planted area, considering both arabica and robusta, are set to hit 2.26 million hectares, a 0.8% year-on-year rise despite the 'off-year' condition.
"It is worth noting that in 'off-years' in the biennial cycle producers tend to carry out crop treatments more intensely in fields that will only come into production in the coming years," Conab president Guilherme Ribeiro said.
He added that the roughly flat acreage in recent years has been offset by higher yields.