The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) estimated a global cocoa deficit of 99,000 metric tonnes in the 2022/23 season, narrower than a previous forecast deficit of 116,000 tonnes.
The ICCO upwardly revised global production by around 15,000 tonnes, saying the higher forecast of 4.953 million tonnes was driven by better-than-previously-expected output in Ecuador and Brazil which more than offset cuts for Ivory Coast and Ghana.
The season runs from October to September.
'The current price rallies... are likely to further entice producers in Latin America to engage more in cocoa production for the ongoing 2023/24 season,' the ICCO said.
Production in Ecuador, the world's third largest grower, was seen at 440,000 tonnes, up from a previous projection of 400,000 while Brazil was seen at 220,000 tonnes, up from 210,000.
London cocoa futures LCCc2 has risen to a record high this week with poor crops in West Africa in the current 2023/24 season (October/September) set to lead to a third successive global deficit.
The ICCO has not yet issued a forecast for 2023/24.
For 2022/23, Ghana's cocoa crop was seen at 680,000 tonnes, down from 700,000 seen previously and Ivory Coast production at 2.18 million tonnes versus 2.20 million.
Global grindings in 2022/23 were seen at 5.002 million tonnes, marginally down from a previous forecast of 5.005 million and now just 0.2% above the prior season.
Elsewhere, Ivory Coast has sold at least 300,000 tonnes of cocoa in export contracts for the 2024/25 season despite pressure from multinational companies to lower prices, exporters and regulator sources said.
Ghana's Cocobod has borrowed between $150 million (€140.4 million) and $200 million (€187.2 million) from cocoa traders to finance bean purchases since the 2023/24 season opened, due to a delay in securing a bank loan.