The Italian food sector will register a 5% decrease in revenue in 2020 due to the effect of coronavirus, but is likely to stage a comeback next year, posting 7.7% growth.
The forecast comes from the sixth edition of the Food Industry Monitor by the University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo (Cuneo), carried out in association with Ceresio Investors.
Operating margins in the food sector should fall from 6.2% to 5.9% this year, before rising again to 6% in 2021, it said.
Despite the unfavourable economic situation in Italy, exports will grow by an average of 11% in the period 2020-2021.
Meanwhile, an ISMEA report estimates that overall household and out-of-home food consumption in Italy will drop by 10% in 2020, year-on-year, to around €24 billion.
While the HoReCa channel is set for a 40% drop with losses of around €34 billion, retail sales should grow by 6% compared to 2019.
Supermarkets are still the main supply channel, with a 42% market share in the period January-May 2020, ahead of hypermarkets (24%), discounters (21%), and independent retailers (13%).
The forecast for the full year indicates that the latter will see the highest annual growth (+16%), ahead of supermarkets (+15%) and discounters (+12%).
Although hypermarkets will see only modest growth (+2%), this will be an improvement over the previous period, when turnover fell by 9% on an annual basis.
© 2020 European Supermarket Magazine – your source for the latest retail news. Article by Branislav Pekic. Click subscribe to sign up to ESM: The European Supermarket Magazine