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Supply Chain

AgRural Trims Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast

Brazilian agribusiness consultancy AgRural has trimmed its forecast for the country's 2021/22 soybean crop again due to bad weather, saying it now expected the oilseed output to reach 128.5 million tonnes.

That was AgRural's second forecast cut in less than a month. The consultancy had estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 133.4 million tonnes on 6 January, a drop from a previously expected record of 144.7 million tonnes.

The new forecast represents an 8.8 million tonnes drop from the previous season, AgRural said in a statement, adding it took into account a yield of 52.9 60-kilo bags per hectare, the lowest since 2015/16.

Weather

According to the company, the move is due to lower yields expected for Brazil's southernmost states and Mato Grosso do Sul, which were heavily affected by dry and hot weather recently.

The firm also mentioned lower output expected in top grain producing state Mato Grosso due to above-average rainfall.

AgRural also said Brazil's 2021/22 soybean harvesting had reached 10% of the estimated area as of Thursday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and ahead of the 2% seen by this point last year, when the oilseed was planted later due to weather issues.

On corn, the consultancy said the harvesting of Brazil's centre-south first crop reached 14%, above the 12% seen in the same period of 2020/21 but with 'very low yields' seen in the South due to a severe drought.

The planting of the 2022 second corn crop, which is sown right after soybean harvesting and accounts for about 75% of Brazil's total corn output in a given year, was estimated at 14%, versus 1.5% a year ago.

Read More: China's 2021 Soy Imports From US Rise While Brazilian Shipments Fall

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