The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for 2022/23 global wheat production, driven largely by a larger-than-expected crop in Ukraine.
In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body raised its forecast for the global wheat crop by five million tonnes to a record 796 million, up from the prior season's 781 million.
Ukraine's production was seen at 25.2 million, up from a previous forecast of 21.5 million, but still well below the prior season's 33 million tonne crop.
The IGC said little change in planted area for wheat was anticipated for 2023/24 and a pullback in yields could limit production to 788 million tonnes, down 1%, year-on-year.
The council also cut its 2022/23 world corn (maize) crop forecast by five million tonnes to 1.161 billion tonnes.
The shift again reflected a major revision for Ukraine with production revised to 25.5 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 29.9 million.
Data from Ukraine's agriculture ministry showed that farms in the country harvested 49.5 million tonnes of grain from 93% of the expected area as of 6 January 2023.
The ministry said in a statement that farmers had harvested 10.7 million hectares of crops, with the grain yield averaging 4.64 tonnes per hectare.
Elsewhere, new research from Barclays has shown that the war in Ukraine and extreme weather events are posing a threat to global food supply chains that are already facing the impact of shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3% from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990.
News by Reuters, edited by ESM – your source for the latest supply chain news. Click subscribe to sign up to ESM: European Supermarket Magazine.