In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body saw global wheat production rising to 792 million tonnes in 2022/23, up from a previous projection of 778 million and now above the prior season's 782 million tonnes.
The main revision was for Russia which was now expected to produce 93.4 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 87.6 million.
Exports From Russia
Russia's wheat exports in the 2022/23 season were still seen at 36.5 million tonnes, despite the higher production forecast, leading to an expected build-up in stocks in the country.
Stocks of wheat in Russia at the end of the 2022/23 season were projected at 22.5 million tonnes, almost double the prior season's level of 11.3 million tonnes.
The IGC also downwardly revised its 2022/23 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 11 million tonnes to 1.168 billion tonnes, mainly driven by a cut in its forecast for US production to 354.2 million tonnes from 364.7 million.
Ukraine Grain Exports
Elsewhere, Ukraine's grain exports declined 48.6% year-on-year in the 2022/23 season until mid-September and stood at 5.291 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said.
The country's grain exports have slumped since the start of the war because its Black Sea ports, a key route for shipments, were closed off, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East.