Total retail sales in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK are set to reach €2.7 trillion by 2028, up from €2.3 trillion in 2023, a new report by Forrester has found.
This represents a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%, it said in the report, Europe-5 Online Retail Forecast, 2023 To 2028.
Online retail sales are set to grow at a faster rate over the forecast period, it added, increasing from €372 billion in 2023 to €579 billion in 2028 – a CAGR of 9.2%. By 2028, online sales are likely to represent 22% of total retail sales in these five markets, up from 16% in 2023.
Germany The Largest Market
On a country-by-country basis, total retail sales in Germany are expected to reach €680 billion by 2028, up from €585 billion in 2023, with online sales accounting for 22% in five years' time.
In the UK, total retail sales will reach £544 billion (€624 billion) in 2028, up from £459 billion (€527 billion) in 2023. Online sales are anticipated to account for close to a third (32%) by 2028, the highest penetration rate in Europe.
In France, meanwhile, total retail sales are forecasted to reach €610 billion in 2028, up from €521 billion in 2023. Online sales are expected to reach 18% by the end of the forecast period, up from 14% in 2023.
Influencing Factors
“Post-pandemic consumer behaviours, global supply chain issues, and a weak economy are all significant factors that have impacted the European retail market over the past few years,” commented Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, as inflation cools and the economy stabilises, we expect both offline and online retail sales to grow at pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024."
Online retail is expected to perform particularly strongly in areas such as media, electronic devices, computer software, and video games, where online will account for more than 50% of their respective total retail sales by 2028.
"To take advantage of this expected growth, European retailers need to focus on enhancing their digital presence, building supply chain resilience, and implementing customer-centric strategies," Miglani added.
