Statistics Estonia reported a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in June 2024 compared to May 2024, and a 2.5% increase compared to June 2023. The last instance of a smaller year-over-year CPI change was in April 2021, at 1.9%.
The primary influences on the CPI increase from June 2023 to June 2024 were housing and transport-related price changes. Specifically, the cost of heat energy decreased by 8.8%.
Food prices showed significant changes over the year. Olive oil prices increased by 45.3%, chocolate by 18.3%, cocoa by 17.7%, and juices and syrups by 16.6%. Conversely, prices for fresh vegetables decreased by 16.6%, and sugar by 20.6%.
While this eased the burden on shoppers somewhat, the "majority of the consumer basket is more expensive than it was a year ago", noted Rasmus Kattai, economist at Eesti Pank, the central bank of Estonia.
He predicted a potential rise in inflation in the latter half of the year due to seasonal energy price increases and the delayed impact of higher food commodity prices on retail prices.
"Although it is still not fully clear, it is possible that inflation in the coming years may, like this year, be affected by new tax policy decisions taken to cover the increased spending by the state and to reduce the budget deficit that has become permanent," he said.
Eesti Pank forecasts an economic revival for Estonia in the second half of the year, although uncertainties remain due to geopolitical risks.
Fitch Solutions provided a less optimistic outlook, suggesting that Estonia's economy would recover slower than previously expected. The economy has been in recession since Q1 2022, impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions against Russia and Belarus. Fitch now projects economic recovery in the latter half of 2024.
Retail trade volume data for May 2024 indicated a turnover of €898 million, reflecting a 4% volume decrease compared to May 2023. Grocery store turnover specifically decreased by 2% over the same period.
Here's an overview of the top five supermarket retail chains in Estonia, according to their most recently-available full-year turnover. All data is supplied by Retail-Index (www.retail-index.com).
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1. Selver
Turnover: €602 million (2022)
Selver is top of the list with an annual turnover of €602 million as of 2022, and 74 outlets currently in Estonia.
The first Selver store – Punane Selver – was opened in 1995 on Lasnamäe in Tallinn. The first major year of expansion was 2002, when Selver doubled the number of its stores and expanded from the capital to Pärnu. By 2012, the business had developed a nationwide network.
In 2020, Selver expanded into the small stores sector, as 19 stores were added to the existing 53 Selver stores with the purchase of Abc Supermarkets.
2. Maxima
Turnover: €520 million (2021)
Maxima, part of Lithuania's Maxima Grupe, had an annual turnover of €520 million in 2021. Maxima has 85 stores in Estonia as of this year.
In February of this year, Maxima Estonia appointed Kristina Mustonen as its sole board member and chief executive officer.
3. Coop
Turnover: €448 million (2021)
Coop is third on the list with an annual turnover of €448 million in 2021.
Coop Estonia (previously ETK) is Estonia's oldest retailer. Today, the co-op family includes 18 consumer cooperatives all over the country. The Coop Eesti Keskühistu or central association, which was established in 1917, offers a range of services to these cooperatives, from central logistics to cooperative marketing.
Coop has 332 outlets in Estonia under the banners Alati ja Odavalt, Konsum and Maksimarket.
4. Rimi
Turnover: €409 million (2021)
Rimi had an annual turnover of €409 million in 2021.
Part of the Rimi Baltic group, the retailer has 88 outlets under the banners Rimi Express, Rimi Hyper, Rimi Mini and Rimi Super.
5. Prisma Peremarket (S Group)
Turnover: €189 million (2021)
Prisma had an annual turnover of €189 million as of 2021, and currently has 13 outlets in Estonia. It is a subsidiary of Finland's SOK (S Group).
In Estonia, the subsidiaries of the SOK group include AS Prisma Peremarket and AS Sokotel, which operates under the trademark of Sokos Hotel Viru.
About Retail-Index
Retail-Index is a specialist supplier of management information on consumer retail markets, provided by Veraart Research Group in the Netherlands. Its mission is to supply managers with up-to-date key information on retail markets in Europe and support them in their international expansion.
The company dates back to 1964, when it started as a market research and marketing consulting company for consumer products and services. In 1989, it started publishing written reports on various retail sectors in Europe. As of 2005, it publishes its information on retailers through the online database and curated datasheet exports available on www.retail-index.com. A team of researchers manages the data to reflect upon current developments in the markets, collected from an extensive number of sources.
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