The European Commission's economic forecast, published in May 2024, anticipates a recovery in the Swedish economy this year, with growth expected to accelerate in 2025.
Domestic demand is identified as the primary driver of this turnaround, supported by continued disinflation, improved financing conditions, and strong external competitiveness bolstering exports. Inflation is projected to decrease to just below 2% by 2025.
As of June 2024, Sweden's consumer price index (CPI) stood at 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest level since September 2021, according to Statistics Sweden (SCB). On a month-to-month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.1%. The inflation rate was influenced mainly by higher housing costs, along with increases in restaurant, health, and recreational services.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing 0.2% to the overall annual CPI.
Retail sales volume increased by 0.2% in May 2024 compared to April 2024. Measured in current prices, retail turnover rose by 3.4% in May 2024 compared to the same month in 2023.
Retail sales in durables grew by 2.0%, while consumables, including food (excluding the state-owned liquor store Systembolaget), saw a 4.4% increase.
Svensk Handel, a trade representative group, has noted an increase in confidence from previous low levels in the retail and wholesale sectors, although e-commerce appears more pessimistic for the next three months.
"The trend continues in the right direction for both retail and wholesale, which is of course positive. However, we must remember that the industry has undergone a tough time in recent years, marked by declining sales and reduced profitability. These positive signals need to be reflected in the numbers soon," said Sofia Larsen, CEO of Swedish Trade.
The grocery trade has largely turned the corner, Svensk Handel noted, and is seeing better sales figures, however there are still challenges to overcome in non-food.
"It is evident that consumers, despite positive sentiments, are still hesitant to spend in the non-food retail sector," Larsen added.
Separate data from Statistics Sweden revealed that household savings in Sweden totalled SEK 82 billion (€7.29 billion) in the first quarter of 2024. This represents an increase of 21 percentage points in households’ financial net wealth as a percentage of GDP compared to the same period in the previous year.
In what is also likely to be good news for Swedish consumers, in late June, Sweden's Riksbank decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 3.75%. The central bank also indicated plans to resume interest rate cuts, potentially implementing up to three reductions in the second half of the year.
The Riksbank stated that consumer price growth is aligning with expectations, allowing for these future cuts. Its inflation forecast suggests a positive outlook, with predictions of approaching 2% inflation in the coming months and years.
Here's an overview of the top ten supermarket retail chains in Sweden, according to their most recently-available full-year turnover. All data is supplied by Retail-Index (www.retail-index.com).
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1. ICA
Turnover: €9.09 billion (2021)
ICA is top of the list with an annual turnover of €9.09 billion recorded in 2021.
The retailer had 1,271 outlets in Sweden as of 2022, under the banners ICA Kvantum, ICA Nära, ICA Supermarket and Maxi ICA Stormarknad.
2. Axfood
Turnover: €5.315 billion (2020)
Axfood is in second place with an annual turnover of €5.315 billion recorded in 2020.
The Swedish retailer had 587 outlets in the country as of 2022, trading under the banners Hemköp, Närlivs, Snabbgross, Tempo, Willys Hemma and Willys.
In June 2024, Axfood reached an agreement with Bergendahl Food Holding to acquire 100% of the food retail chain City Gross for SEK 2 billion (€180 million).
3. Coop
Turnover: €3.14 billion (2020)
Coop recorded an annual turnover of €3.14 billion as of 2020. It had 809 stores in Sweden as of 2022.
In February of this year, Coop Sweden announced plans to invest in a new goods terminal in Eskilstuna logistics park. The new goods terminal will be one of Europe's largest fully automated food terminals, according to Coop Sweden. It also announced an operational restructuring in November of last year.
4. Lidl
Turnover: €1.31 billion (2020)
Lidl had an annual turnover of €1.31 billion in Sweden as of 2020.
The German discounter opened its first stores in Sweden in 2003 and had 205 outlets in the country as of 2022.
5. Bergendahls
Turnover: €1.12 billion (2019)
Bergendahls had an annual turnover of €1.12 billion in 2019. The-family owned company had 122 outlets in Sweden as of 2022.
It operates the banners City Gross, Den Svenska, Matrebellen, Eko and Matöppet.
Other notable food retail players in Sweden include Reitan, which operates the 7-Eleven and Pressbyrån chains, operating a total of 393 outlets.
About Retail-Index
Retail-Index is a specialist supplier of management information on consumer retail markets, provided by Veraart Research Group in the Netherlands. Its mission is to supply managers with up-to-date key information on retail markets in Europe and support them in their international expansion.
The company dates back to 1964, when it started as a market research and marketing consulting company for consumer products and services. In 1989, it started publishing written reports on various retail sectors in Europe. As of 2005, it publishes its information on retailers through the online database and curated datasheet exports available on www.retail-index.com. A team of researchers manages the data to reflect upon current developments in the markets, collected from an extensive number of sources.
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